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      <doi>10.14455/ISEC.2026.13(2).ENR-04</doi>
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        <article-title>INTEGRATED LOAD CLUSTERING AND MACHINE LEARNING FORECASTING FOR BUILDING ENERGY ANALYSIS</article-title>
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      <author>MUHAMMAD HUZAIFA ZAHID<sup>1</sup>, FAHAD UR REHMAN<sup>1</sup>, ASAD ULLAH<sup>1</sup> and OSAMA MOHSEN<sup>1,2</sup></author>
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        <sup>1</sup>Dept of Architectural Engineering and Construction Management, King Fahd Univ of Petroleum &amp; Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia<br />
        <sup>2</sup>Interdisciplinary Research Center for Construction and Building Materials, King Fahd Univ of Petroleum &amp; Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia<br />
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      <title>ABSTRACT</title>
      <p>Cities in hot-humid climates experience persistent cooling demand and rising electricity consumption, making accurate short-term load forecasting and systematic characterization of building energy use essential for operational energy management.  This study presents a data-driven framework to derive representative load archetypes across building sectors and generate hourly electricity forecasts at high temporal resolution to support energy-related decision-making.  One year of hourly electricity records from 24 buildings (8,760 observations per building) in Manama, Bahrain, is analyzed.  Temporal and autoregressive features are derived from standardized timestamps, including Load(t-1), Load(t-2), Load(t-24), hour, day, and month.  K-Means clustering is used to identify daily load archetypes, with the number of clusters selected using elbow and silhouette analyses.  Three supervised machine-learning models, Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), are trained to predict hourly electricity demand and evaluated using R² and RMSE.  Three distinct consumption archetypes are identified:  schedule-driven buildings, large commercial systems with sustained demand, and one atypical commercial educational facility.  ANN achieved the highest hold-out accuracy (R² = 0.89, RMSE = 344 kW), whereas RF showed the strongest generalization under CV-5 (R² = 0.78, RMSE = 596 kW) and was therefore selected.  The proposed clustering-forecasting framework demonstrates a scalable, model-agnostic approach for comparative energy analysis, demand-response prioritization, and operational energy optimization in electricity-intensive urban environments.</p>
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        <italic>Keywords: </italic>Predictive modeling, Electricity consumption, Operational archetypes, K-Means algorithm, Portfolio segmentation, Demand response</p>
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      <hpdf>ENR-04</hpdf>
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