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<doi>/ISEC.res.2017.16</doi>
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<article-title>USING STATISTICAL MODELS BASED ON<br/>
HISTORICAL PROJECT DATA TO ESTIMATE<br/>
DURATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS</article-title>
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<author>GUILLERMO NEVETT, DOUGLAS ALLEMAN, and PAUL GOODRUM</author>

<aff>Dept of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder,<br/>
Boulder, USA</aff>


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<abstract>
<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p>Estimating the duration of highway transportation projects accurately has always been
a challenge for State Transportation Agencies (STAs) in the United States (US) due to
the differences in projects’ location, scope, nature, size, and goals. Inaccurate
estimates of project durations by STAs can lead to a lack of commitment from
contractors, not needing to invest their maximum effort to fulfill a project’s scope.
STAs have used a variety of methods to estimate and set contract time, mainly relying
on historical production rates in tandem with activity precedent logic programs. The
Kentucky Transportation Cabinet has recently attempted to develop a statistical model
which estimates contract times by using parametric modeling and historic contracting
times with success. This paper attempts to build upon their findings, regressing
historical data from Montana Department of Transportation projects using bid
tabulations, engineers’ estimates, location, and type of project, among other factors as
inputs. The model presented is still under development and is expected to increase in
accuracy as it reaches its final state.</p>
<p><italic>Keywords: </italic>Highway, Regression analysis, Parametric modeling, Duration estimation.</p>
</abstract>
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