<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<?xml-stylesheet href="client.xsl" type="text/xsl"?>
<article article-type="other">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id/>
<issn/>
<banner>
<href>banner.jpg</href>
<size width="100%"/>
</banner>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<doi>/ISEC.res.2017.35</doi>
<title-group>
<article-title>FORECASTING CONCEPTUAL COSTS OF BRIDGE<br/>
PROJECTS USING NON-PARAMETRIC<br/>
REGRESSION ANALYSIS</article-title>
</title-group>

<author>YUANXIN ZHANG and R. EDWARD MINCHIN JR.</author>

<aff>M.E. Rinker, Sr. School of Construction Management, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA</aff>


</article-meta></front>
<body>
<abstract>
<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p>The cost of bridge construction is influenced by numerous internal and external factors,
making it very difficult to approximate. Years prior to a bridge project letting, state
highway agencies (SHAs) must set a reliable budget for the proposed project, but the
information available to them is very limited. Developing reliable cost estimates for
bridge projects during the early pre-construction phases is very important and
challenging for SHAs. This study employed a non-parametric regression analysis
technique—multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)—to model the conceptual
cost of bridge projects. This novel approach does not require detailed construction
documents and does not require strict assumptions to be valid for the developed model
or to be reliable for the model predictions. MARS was applied to the empirical data
gathered from a Florida Department of Transportation database. The 10-fold cross-
validation method was employed in this study to assess model performance. The
criteria to gauge overall model fit, generalizability, and prediction error were evaluated.
The results revealed that the developed model consistently performed well, based on
Cross-Validated R-square (CVRSq), Generalized Cross-Validation (GSV), Generalized
R-square (GRSq), and max error.</p>
<p><italic>Keywords: </italic>MARS, Early phase cost, Construction management, Infrastructure,
Budget.</p>
</abstract>
<fpdf>
<href>pdflogo.jpg</href>
<hpdf>CPM-17</hpdf>
</fpdf>
</body>
</article>