ISEC

International Structural Engineering and Construction Society

COVID-19 Report

as of 4/5/2020



In all this frenzy of COVID, with police ruthlessly blaring loudspeakers on a quiet beach on a sunny Sunday in Waikiki, let us observe that there is plenty good news coming from Europe, despite the gloom and doom of increasing deaths. In any event, one must never look at the cumulative numbers of active cases or total deaths, because those are bond to depress.

We observe that Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Norway, Portugal, Australia …. are on a declining trendline. Regression analysis from the maximum peak to today reveals that the slope is downward for them. It is always a challenge, however, to use an appropriate trendline, because some polynomials and profiles give negative or imaginary solutions. After applying simple judgment, we discovered that while Spain’s profile responded well to a fourth order polynomial, all the other countries did well with simple linear regression.

At the decline predicted by regression analysis, dates are given below when the stated countries will likely have zero daily cases. These are among the top countries with a large number of cases:

Australia: April 15
Iran: April 26
Spain: May 01
Switzerland: May 09
Germany: May 12
Italy: May 18

These values are by no means cast in stone, but are given to show that the light at the end of the tunnel is around the corner.

A ‘modified control chart’ analysis also reveals all countries in Europe are “out of control” in their daily cases. In this analysis, “out of control” is good if the cases are declining, but bad if rising. The average line keeps going down day by day if daily cases continue to decline, which is what we want, and so the bar also goes down, but that is fine with us. Whereas, the upper and lower control limits using standard deviation coincide with the average in this modified analysis, the trend analysis of the data can still be undertaken using standard rubrics of control chart analysis. Essentially, we always want new points to be below the average line. So long as the process is “out of control” in the downward direction only, we have good hope. This chart gives us useful tips when combined with regression and statistical t-tests.

Hence, we see that Spain, Italy, Switzerland, and Australia are really going in the right direction.

The increasing number of deaths worldwide and each country can be misleading. That’s because –

  1. Deaths will lag new cases by 8-14-21 days,
  2. If the daily cases were at a high 8-14-21 days ago, the corresponding deaths were high yesterday and probably higher today, and
  3. As daily cases decline, the daily deaths will reduce only in due course.

The trouble is that people are impatient and want to see instant results – like instant coffee, microwaveable food, instant gratification … but bio systems don't respond instantly. Only miracles can be instantaneous, and those don't come easy.

Further, t-test statistical analysis for Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Germany, and Australia clearly show that the recent four consecutive days have significantly lower daily cases than the three days with the highest peaks. This test is conclusive of the recent trends. Italy and Australia are significant at 99% confidence; Switzerland at 95%; Spain at 90%; and Germany at 80%. The higher the confidence, the surer the difference. The results clearly show we are convincingly seeing declines in daily cases in those and many other countries. Very soon, we should be out of the woods.

Looking at the logistic curve – the S-curve -- which is common in epidemic and pandemic analysis, the curve has flattened out for China and South Korea. Italy, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, and Australia are past the inflection point, indicating that the growth slope is less than 1.0. France has had a fantastic two days after a disastrous day on April 3, somewhat replicating the profile of China, but 50 days later. Belgium and Netherlands are at the inflection point, having reached there after exponential growth earlier. Verily, Buddha is smiling on Europe.

We have regression, control chart analysis, t-test analysis, and logistic curve slope analysis to show that Europe is – by and large – emerging from this devastating crisis. Instead of focusing on Spain exceeding Italy in the total number of cases, focus on Spain having fewer cases than its peak for 10 days in a row; Germany 9 days in a row, Switzerland 16 days in a row; and Italy 15 days in a row. With a virus such as COVID-19, 8 to 21 days is within a meaningful period, considering that the gestation period from onset to clearance or death is about that many days, in general.

And, Iran may have well turned the bend, as well, hallelujah; otherwise hell might have broken loose. They’ve been down from their peak for 6 days in a row. We’re all in this together, and the virus doesn’t discriminate between friend and foe.

Worldwide growth declined today (Sunday) by 15.8%, declining two days in a row. Brazil and USA had a respite today, probably perhaps because it was Sunday and people often don’t go to doctors on a Sunday. But, Canada, UK, Turkey, and Netherlands continued upwards. These countries have a tough row to hoe for another two weeks yet, USA especially so owing to its vast population.

At the rate the USA is going, our calculations show that USA could easily have 125,000 deaths. If it’s any consolation, this number is way below the 675,000 Americans taken by the angel of death during the Spanish Flu of 1918. God taketh, but he giveth.

Sorry, we can't analyze every country in the world owing to a resource shortage, but we are focusing on countries with the most cases. Let’s see what tomorrow and the next two weeks bring. Without a shade of doubt, your fate is in your ‘hands’. Whether we get a second wave or not must really be observed in the Fall season.

For the first time, strangely, the world is united, largely putting aside its petty differences for the short term. We sure hope this momentum of kindness can be carried into the future, much as World War I drew to a close after the devastating outbreak of the Spanish Flu.


COVID-19 PowerPoint as of 4/5/2020




Past Reports


PowerPoint

4/4/2020

One must observe that Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Norway, Portugal, Australia …. are on a declining trendline. A simple regression from the maximum peak point reveals that the slope is downward. Linear regression is very logical to use, as it gives a representative answer, anyway, and especially because the exact profile is inaccurate to plot, and because the best fit regression up to now is unlikely to be able to project properly into the future. The attached power point carries linear regression trendlines for Italy, Spain, Germany, and Switzerland.



At the predicted decline per the linear trendline, the dates are given below by when the countries will have zero cases:
Italy: May 17
Switzerland: May 21
Germany: July 9
Spain: July 23

These may sound depressing, and linear regression isn’t the best regression, either, but we are only presenting results of specific analyses. These values are by no means cast in stone, but are given to show that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

A control chart analysis also reveals that numerous countries in Europe are “out of control” in their daily cases. In this analysis, “out of control” is good if the cases are declining, but bad if rising. Though our sample size is one for each day, we have more than 10 subgroups, having started our analysis on March 19. Whereas, the upper and lower control limits coincide with the average, the trend analysis of the data points can still be undertaken of, for example, whether four out of five consecutive points, etc. are below the lower control limit. Other control chart trend analysis guidelines can also be utilized. So long as the process is “out of control” in the desired direction, we have good hope. This is not a rigorous control chart analysis, but gives us useful tips when combined with linear regression and t-tests.

The increasing number of deaths can be misleading. That’s because –

  1. Deaths will lag new cases by 8-11-14 days,
  2. If the daily cases were at a high 8-11-14 days ago, the corresponding deaths were high yesterday and probably higher today, and
  3. As daily cases decline, the deaths will reduce only in due course.

People are impatient and want to see instant results – like instant coffee, instant gratification … but bio systems don't respond instantly. Only miracles can be instantaneous, and those don't come by easily.

Further, t-test analysis for Italy, Switzerland, Germany, and Austria clearly show that the recent four consecutive days have significantly lower daily cases than the three days with the highest peaks. Italy is significant at 99% confidence; Spain and Germany for 80%; and Switzerland for 90%. The higher the confidence, the surer the difference. The results clearly show we are convincingly seeing decline in the daily cases in those and many other countries. Hence, don't look at cumulative case numbers because those will always increase, and you’ll continue to feel depressed looking at them.

Look, we have regression, control chart analysis, and t-test analysis to show that Europe is – by and large – emerging from this devastating crisis. Instead of focusing on Spain exceeding Italy in the total number of cases, focus on Spain having fewer cases than its peak for 9 days in a row, Germany 8 days in a row, and Italy 14 days in a row. With a virus such as COVID-19, 8-14 days is within a meaningful period, considering that the gestation period from onset to clearance or death is about 8-14 days.

And, Iran could have turned the bend, as well, hallelujah; otherwise hell could have broken loose. They’ve been down from their peak for 6 days in a row. We’re all in this together, and the virus doesn’t discriminate between friend or foe.

Worldwide growth declined today by 16.5%; this is the third time that worldwide growth declined from the previous day, only to rise again with vengeance; so, nothing to open champagne for.

Even UK had a respite in growth today, but not USA or Canada or Brazil or Turkey. Sadly, Turkey has climbed to the ninth spot in the world for total cases. But, Australia has shown a remarkable decline, and we’ll do regression for Australia tomorrow, since there is promise there.

Sorry, we can't analyze every country in the world owing to a resource shortage, but we are focusing on countries with the most cases.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings. But note, tomorrow is Sunday, and reporting may not be complete till Monday. As it is, we are sometimes frustrated that Worldometer, from where we collect our data, revises its numbers for daily cases a day or two later.

God bless and best wishes. Take care of yourself and the family.

PowerPoint

4/3/2020

Good News:

Italy is down from its peak in daily cases for 13 days in a row; Spain, 8; Germany, 7; Switzerland, 13; South Korea, 27 days; Belgium, 6; Netherlands, 7; Austria, 9; Portugal, 3; Norway, 7; and Australia, 12. Many of these countries, such as Belgium, Netherlands, Australia appear to have gone through a “second wave,” albeit with a lower crest than the first wave. So long as the daily cases decline, we’ll take it.

We can statistically see that the numbers of daily cases for the past three days (including today) are significantly lower than those around the peak days for Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Austria, Norway, and Australia.

Even Iran showed the first signs of moving lower from its peak rather than going up, and is being held in check for the past week. Worldwide growth was muted at 4%.


Bad News:

The Western world has now been afflicted for about a month. Whereas, there are countries that are registering fewer daily cases than at their peak, it does look as if the climb down will be at least as long as the climb-up, if not longer. That is the troublesome part. This pandemic could easily take another six to eight weeks before daily case levels are down to an incidence rate whose corresponding deaths equal those of the common flu, about 0.1%. At that time, countries may begin to think of lifting the travel ban. The probability of contracting COVID-19 at that stage could be 40 times less than contracting the plain flu virus.

USA, UK, Canada, and Brazil continue to climb inexorably. While the UK is behind the rest of mainland Europe by about a week, and USA and Canada are behind UK by another week, Brazil is behind USA by yet another week. Turkey and Israel are running behind, as well.

The greatest surprise was France, which saw the worst increase of any country in any single day (growth = 12.3 times). This just shows what the virus is capable of.

UK and USA grew; Brazil and Turkey are still in their highs. Though Israel had a decline in growth today, it’s much too soon to tell. USA will climb a lot more in the days to come owing to its mammoth population.

The crisis in USA is yet to reveal itself, especially if the number of serious cases outstrips the number of ventilators. That said, it’s already horrible if one has to go on a ventilator; and the ventilator is not a certain cure. Most of the people who die have been on ventilators. We don't have the statistics yet as to what percentage of people who have been on ventilators survive.

All that said, let's continue to keep our fingers crossed, and our hands washed. Keep doing your work where you are, and pray to God alongside. We don't advise people to carry a 4 ft long stick to measure their social distance from people because that can lead to unintended consequences.

God bless and best wishes.

PowerPoint

4/2/2020

The world continues to see an increase, with the major numbers coming from USA. We must remember that the USA is a huge country – the largest in the Western Hemisphere -- and so its numbers are expected to be larger than those for any country in Europe. Next, USA has a time lag to Europe – anywhere by about 7-14 days, so USA will get worse before it starts to get better.

Italy is down from its peak in daily cases for 12 days in a row; Spain, 7; Germany, 6; Switzerland, 13; and South Korea, 27 days. France has seen a remarkable decline for the past two days, with today’s daily cases being 44% of the previous day’s; and day-before’s cases being 64% from the day before that. Even UK, which was jumping ahead as if there was no ceiling, had a respite today, with its growth declining for today. In fact, today is looking better than yesterday for Europe.

We can statistically see that the numbers of daily cases for the past three days (including today) are significantly lower than those around the peak days for Italy, Germany, and Switzerland

Even Iran has not burst out, but is being held in check for the past six days. Worldwide growth was muted at 3.7%.

The seesaw in daily cases for both Cyprus and Hawaii continued today. The correlation of cases between these two islands is significantly high.

For various days recently, China has reportedly had zero daily cases. Neither China nor South Korea is on lockdown.

We are finding that Worldometer sometimes revises its data of earlier days, because all data doesn't always come in the next day. Hence, we also have to revise our charts accordingly.

All that said, let's continue to keep our fingers crossed, and our hands washed. Keep doing your work where you are, and pray to God alongside.

The one lesson we need to learn from this pandemic is to raise the worldwide hygiene standards of the way we slaughter, handle, and store meats across the board – especially in the emerging countries. We’ve seen that what happens there affects the whole world.

God bless and best wishes.

PowerPoint

4/1/2020

Italy is down from its peak in daily cases for 11 days in a row; Spain, 6; Germany, 5; Switzerland, 12; and South Korea, 26 days. This is a sign that the virus is being held in check by the measures taken by humans.

The average growth of the past five days has been lowest yesterday in USA over the past six days. For Italy and Germany, this growth has fallen below 1.0.

Even Iran has not burst out, but is being held in check for the past six days. Worldwide growth was muted at 4.3%.

Cyprus and Hawaii had their largest daily cases today. The correlation of cases between these two islands is significantly high despite their daily volatility, or perhaps because of it.

The numbers coming out of China and India are unreliable – for different reasons -- even as a United Nations Report said that China and India will be least affected economically as a result of this virus. Let’s see.

This virus has to be beaten, so hang in there and continue to take standard cleanliness precautions.

All that said, let's continue to keep our fingers crossed, since each day is a new day.

God bless and best wishes.

PowerPoint

3/31/2020

Let’s continue to pursue the analysis strategy we started earlier and formalized yesterday for the major countries afflicted by COVID-19.

Italy is down from its peak in daily cases for 10 days in a row; Spain, 5; Germany, 4; Switzerland, 11; and South Korea, 25 days. These are positives.

USA, Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran, UK, and Switzerland had lower 5-day moving averages of growth than the last five days for which that data was measured. Following on what we said yesterday about USA’s possible growth decline by 2% a day, the 5-day moving average may be a better marker than the daily volatility which can make anyone dizzy. Indeed, when we want to look at the whole forest, one has to look past the trees. There are signs of the end of the tunnel, here.

While Uncle Trump is right to ask everyone to be on alert for the next 30 days, he’s taking giant steps for another $2 trillion stimulus for infrastructure, as well as using the low prices of oil to top up strategic oil reserves to ensure that the free world will not be found wanting in case another shoe drops.

France, UK, and USA saw new peaks today, but we’ve already asked you to look beyond daily volatility. UK seems to be statistically in the same zone for the past four days, and Iran for the past five days. USA’s 5-day moving average growth rate is declining;

The world’s total daily cases increased today largely because of the jump in France and the growth in USA. Despite this fact that can scare people, the world’s average 5-day moving growth average was lowest today (Table 1).

It’s also important to look beyond the daily volatility of Cyprus and Hawaii, and observe that Hawaii is off its peak value for 3 days in a row, and Cyprus for 2 days in a row.

Sometimes it’s good to look at the positives to keep one’s spirits intact.

All that said, let's continue to keep our fingers crossed, since each day is a new day.

God bless and best wishes.

PowerPoint

3/30/2020

Instead of focusing on all the bad news coming at us, let’s look at the analysis slightly differently today.

All major countries in Europe are off their maximum peaks today, i.e., despite varying growth and decline in different countries, none of them has exceeded their prior peak of daily cases. We must look for patterns in all this data, rather than blowing with the wind.

Italy is down 9 days in a row; Spain, 4; Germany, 3; France, 2 (though it rebounded today compared to yesterday); UK, 3; Switzerland, 10; and South Korea, 24 days. Europe is looking good on this count.

Iran is the only country, along with USA that is bucking the trend, although for different reasons. Iran, because of its total destitution; USA, because it was late on the scene compared to Europe.

The graph for China continues to feel strange. On Feb 12, China peaked to 14,108 cases, but fell down the next day to 5,090, and the day after to 2,641. Anyone can tell you that this type of decline is not visible in any other country. Again, the rise and fall of epidemics is usually close to a normal distribution or a beta distribution with a right skew. China does not display that behavior. Hence, we feel that something doesn’t look quite right with the data from China.

The USA has been climbing daily, albeit at a slower pace every day since March 26. Yesterday and day-before, USA’s growth was in the 2-2.5% range only, a far cry from the 29% on March 26 and 20% of March 25. If US growth drops by the 2.64% average decline since the past 5 days, USA could be out of the woods quite soon. But, that’s looking at the optimistic side.

On the pessimistic side, if USA’s growth averages that of the last five days of 9.2% for the rest of time, 42 million people in USA will be infected by 60 days, and 761,000 people would have died, if you follow the current death rate. But, if the number of serious patients outstrips the number of ventilators, the death rate could rise. God forbid!

(Yesterday’s data for USA was re-updated today at our data source – not our fault -- but that changes are report for USA yesterday to that extent).

Even tiny Hawaii has been off its peak for two days, and Cyprus for a day. We are tracking the correlation between Hawaii and Cyprus because, for one, they are island populations of the same size.

So, there are patterns to be seen. Let's not forget the forest while looking at the trees; let’s not forget the larger picture while looking at daily volatility.

But, let's continue to keep our fingers crossed, since each day is a new day.

PowerPoint

3/29/2020

Every major country (top 10, except USA) registered a decline in COVID-19 growth from 5 pm yesterday to 5 pm today, including Iran. China has minuscule numbers compared to their peak on Feb 12.

Switzerland has been below its peak for nine days in a row; Italy for eight days in a row. This is hopeful evidence that they are over the hill. Each of them took ~3 weeks to reach their peak, from March 1 to 21. So, with some reasoning, it'll take 3 more weeks after Mar 21 for them to come down.

Spain has been down three days in a row, but still took 21 days to reach its peak. They were a little behind the rest of Europe to catch the virus. The USA, in turn, is another 7-odd days behind Spain.

But, seeing the case in South Korea, the rise and fall distribution curve is not exactly a normal distribution, but is skewed to the right (longer tail to the right). So, even if the recovery is longer than 3 weeks, we would have a dramatically lowered incidence rate and also a lower expectation probability of catching the virus.

After today's promising data, it's not impossible to expect some travel bans and lockdowns to be lifted by April 30. But, let's continue to keep our fingers crossed, since each day is a new day.

Keep hope!

PowerPoint

3/28/2020

There appears to be no let up in worldwide growth; all major countries, including S Korea, but save China, registered positive daily growth yesterday. There is no mathematical answer to how long this will continue in this exponential growth. We only realize that it is conceivable for the entire world population to be afflicted, though 80% will recover with ease, while 1.5%-10% will be fatal, and while another 10-15% will fare medical hardships.

The growth will only be curtailed in the world by strict lockdown measures and enforcement of quarantine; the virus itself “could” get exhausted by warming temperatures, though March is peak season for flu, anyway. The virus found the best time to attack the human population – in winter – when humans are most vulnerable to coronaviruses. We simply hope there is no conspiracy behind this entire pandemic.

Though Italy has registered positive growth for the average of this past week, it has a redeeming feature in that the ratio of its 3-day average for daily cases to its maximum peak, over the past seven days, has been below 1.0. Our hearts to go out to the struggle of the Italians and the large number of deaths in Italy. We were relieved to hear of the prayer by the Pope during mass today.

Though a swallow or two doesn’t make for summer, we notice that Spain has witnessed a decline these past two days. Let’s hope this holds up, especially since Spain witnessed daily growth for the past four days prior.

Germany and France are still at their highs, while Iran reached an all-time high. UK experienced a decline yesterday.

South Korea is still sparring with its second wave; it is worrisome that S Korea has not been able to reduce the daily cases in this second wave since two weeks. Up until now, South Korea has been extolled as a model country for fighting COVID-19, so let’s hope it can keep up and increase its momentum of doing so.

Tiny Cyprus and Hawaii both registered a growth today. Hawaii saw its largest daily rise today. Interestingly, there is some correlation between the daily cases of Cyprus and Hawaii. At 5% significance, the correlation yesterday of the 5-day moving average was 0.74, while today it is 0.68. We wonder why they are correlated to each other and not well correlated to the major countries.

The ratio of the maximum daily cases of recent three days to the maximum peak rose for every country today. Whereas, we realize that this ratio can never exceed 1.0, we see that this ratio is perilously close to or above 0.9 for most countries. This simply means that countries are seeing new highs on a daily basis.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings; each day is a new day with COVID-19! We hope for the best, and hope that things will
be better by April 15.


What to do?

  • Take care, but don't worry. This will pass.

PowerPoint

3/27/2020

The growth in Italy, Spain, China, and South Korea is holding statistically steady. This is always welcome to hear. Growth above 1.0 is what we definitely don’t want. Of course, the actual new cases in China and South Korea are miniscule compared to their past highs.

Table 2 is particularly informative of the state of the world, where the average of three days new cases to max peak is actually still very high for the European countries, approaching a massive ratio of 0.9 for most of the European countries and Iran.

Moreover, we are statistically not out of the woods yet, because the average growth of the last five days is above 1.0 for every country considered.

The average growth to our baseline of 3/19/20 (when we started this study), is going through the roof for USA, UK, Spain, and Iran.

Italy has good news, in that for the past six days in a row, its new cases have been lower than the peak. Let’s hope this is a sign that the virus will come under control. Its new cases have been in a steady, nominal control band of between 5,000 and 6,000 cases daily.

Germany, UK, and USA reached a new peak today. Boris Johnson caught the bug after Prince Charles yesterday. It’s a good idea to stay clear of the big politicians – they are the ones coming in contact with the most people!

Let’s see what tomorrow brings; each day is a new day with COVID-19! We hope for the best, and hope that things will
be better by April 15, though the world situation may get worse in the next week.


What to do?

  • Hang in there! Take the lockdown seriously. If you must go walk at the beach, stay clear of people. Swimming in the ocean is perfectly ok, too, so long as you are not prevented from getting into the ocean park.
  • To avoid the problem of lack of exercise at home, invent any number of ways to exercise at home.
  • Stay hydrated! Stay hydrated!

PowerPoint

3/26/2020

The following are the facts today:

The world – and USA, Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Iran saw new peaks today in daily cases. The world increased its daily cases by 60,000. Besides, there may be many more out there that experienced mild symptoms from COVID-19 and did not even get tested. There is no evidence yet that these countries above are close to the inflection point. With a ratio of the three-day average to max daily cases running at 83.9%, the growth for the world is headed for the sky.

All countries, except China, but including Italy and South Korea had positive growth today. China and South Korea appear to be on their second wave of cases; alternately, we could look at the tapering-off curve as extra-long for China and South Korea. This may be because China and South Korea both do not have lockdowns currently. But, the methods they have chosen to fight COVID-19 are not those that the rest of the world can easily adopt.

As we reported yesterday, China took a nominal ~18 days to reach its peak, while South Korea took ~12 days. Whereas, the logistics curve is appreciable in that once the inflection point is reached, the growth factor decreases, the logistic curve distribution of the actual dissipation of cases appears heavily skewed to the right. This means that lockdowns and social distancing must be taken with even greater seriousness.

However, it is still a wild guess at present to decide when the European countries and USA will reach the inflection point. It will be a day to celebrate when that happens, because the world’s outlook will immediately turn positive. However, the inflection point isn’t really passed in a day, because only after you get three to six descending control points can you be somewhat confident that the virus may have run its course.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings; each day is a new day with COVID-19!


What to do?

  • Prayer and discipline must be undertaken side-by-side.

PowerPoint

3/25/2020

The following are the facts to consider for today:

After the growth reaches 1.0 for 3 to 5 days over a 3-to-5 day moving average, we can assume that the inflection point has been reached. After that, the subsidence in the logistic curve will take as much time as it did to reach the inflection point. But, nothing is as perfect in reality as it is in pure mathematics. So, give and take a bit.

At present, the world is on a growth roll. Average daily growth is still around 10%, which is very high. Each day brings a higher number of daily cases to the world. Of course, we know that the growth curve will increase before it will decrease. And, the growth curve will definitely decrease by the laws of nature. But, we don’t know how long that will be. If South Korea is a guide, they got the virus under control in TWO WEEKS. But, the rest of the world is not South Korea!

It’s definitely not looking like we are close to the inflection point for most Western countries. (Ignore China and South Korea from this discussion because they appear to have the virus virtually arrested). As bad as Italy’s deaths are, that much Italy holds the greatest promise of reaching the inflection point based on the performance of the last four days when its daily cases have been below its peak.

USA, Spain, and Iran are strange bedfellows, in that they are showing no let in their growth. Iran has re started on a high upward trajectory that does not bode well. In USA, 50% of all cases are reported in New York. We wonder why that is, and can only explain it by observing that New York is the center of the immigrant population, and that a lot of travelers simply stop in New York. The high density of population there doesn’t help.

Germany exhibits hope because its total daily cases are less than its prior peak for the last four days in a row. But, its ratio of the average of the last three days to peak daily cases is getting higher. So, Germany could go in either direction in the next few days to come.

Together, Germany, France, and Italy are the best performers in Europe.

Cyprus and Hawaii are small population islands, and they were looking good today. They may perhaps be able to arrest the virus because they have strict lockdowns in place, including travel restrictions. But, being small populations, the data is likely to be less consistent, as well. We’ll keep watching these.

But, the world, as a whole is looking like it’s a long way from home. Stay positive, but the virus can’t go away in only 2-3 days.

Note that it took ~18 days for China and Italy to reach their peak; ~12 days for S Korea. Those ~18 days are not quite over for USA, Spain, Germany, France, or UK; those ~18 days can be expected to be over by March 30. Remain tuned for some improvements after March 30. There is always light at the end of the tunnel.

Iran is looking like a basket case. Its neighbor, Pakistan, with a population of 200 million, also has an exploding problem, where the government simply doesn’t have the wherewithal to support its citizens, unless its rich benefactors from the Middle East help out in sympathy, which doesn’t sound necessarily likely. While the virus can spread between the Pakistan-Iran borders, India has totally sealed its border with Pakistan with redoubled effort. So, India appears safe. If the virus can sneak into India in a big way, hell can break lose in that country. But, Prime Minister Modi of India has vowed to defeat the virus in 21 days!

Keep praying! Let’s see what tomorrow brings; each day is a new day!


What to do?

  • Wipe down every item you bring into the house from outside – such as packets and packages.
  • Throw out all empty bags and boxes you bring in! But, we know that the virus can survive on cardboard only for an hour.
  • Wash all fruits. Wash apples and oranges in soapy water!
  • Use this time to de-clutter your house, and minimize the number of surfaces the virus can reside on. Wear gloves while doing so, and wash your hands after the effort.
  • The virus does not stick well to food. So, if you buy hamburgers, turn the box upside down on a plate, and then throw the box away as if it was a virus!
  • Think positively, but don’t become macho in your thinking. This virus can catch anyone, even Prince Charles! God really save the queen!

PowerPoint

3/24/2020

The Good News
  1. South Korea is a model nation that has been able to curtail the growth of the virus. By their aggressive testing, early detection, isolation, and “contact tracing,” they have been very successful. S Korea has not resorted to the type of lockdown that all countries appear to be using.
  2. China’s daily case numbers are massively below the peak → at 0.4% of the peak value.
  3. France was the only major country to see a growth decline today.
  4. Uncle Trump thinks hopes to get Americans back to work by Easter, April 12; but Dr. Anthony Faucci clarified that the Easter date is “flexible.”
  5. As a result of this social distancing, it is likely that we will beat many hundreds of strains of other common cold and flu viruses, as well.
  6. The virus is not a threat to the existence of the human race (But, good practice for the next deadlier virus). After all, S Korea is where it is today because it really learned from the SARS epidemic of 2003.

The Bad News
  1. Just when we thought Italy was rebounding for the better, Italy’s growth was 9.6%.
  2. So today, Italy, USA, and Spain had close to 9% growth each. Not good!
  3. China seems to be entering a second wave of virus cases, but at immensely subdued numbers.
  4. Iran is not showing any promise of controlling the virus. Indeed, the handling of the crisis in Iran has come under severe attack.
  5. The UK was very explosive today (Growth = 14.76%).
  6. The average of the recent three days to max peak increased today for all major countries, except Italy. We like to see this ratio going to 0.7, 0.6, 0.5 …. and down to where South Korea is (0.09) … and lower.
  7. The world had its maximum cases today, i.e., its peak was today! The World’s corresponding Table 2 ratio is very high (0.896), approaching 1.0.
  8. The world’s profile of new cases is growing steadily at a growth of 11.54% (very high)
  9. Table 3 represents a more steady moving growth perspective, but across the board it shows a worsening trend for the major countries.
  10. So far, Italy’s death rate is the highest, at about 10%
  11. Comparing to our baseline date of March 19, the three day average, Table 4, is looking worse for all major countries, except Italy. So, we hope that the worst-affected country (in terms of death rate) comes to grips with the virus.
  12. Cyprus and Hawaii had a decline in growth, but community spread has probably started.
  13. The Olympics have been postponed.
  14. A fear of terrorists attacking hospitals has been raised!
  15. Overall comment: the overall situation is looking worse today compared to yesterday.

What to do?

Don’t touch people with even a barge pole! Keep your distance! Humans are the greatest danger to humans today.

Remain on guard.

Pray that things get better!

PowerPoint

3/23/2020

The Good News
  1. China’s daily case numbers are massively below the peak → at 0.4% of the peak value.
  2. Italy’s daily cases have declined two days in a row.
  3. Hence, the two worst-hit countries above are doing better.
  4. USA is statistically steady compared to yesterday.
  5. South Korea is coming to grips with the virus, as daily cases reach the low end of the taper.
  6. The recent two-day moving data is greatly improved for Italy, S Korea, and UK.
  7. Uncle Trump thinks that the COVID crisis will be over in weeks, not in months.

The Bad News
  1. Iran had its maximum daily cases yesterday, surpassing the previous peak of March 14.
  2. Spain, Germany, and France rebounded with terrible vengeance yesterday, increasing growth at a slope of 1.94:1, 1.67:1, and 2.5:1, in that order.
  3. Cyprus and Hawaii also had a horrible day, with the daily cases increasing by 1.9 and 2.6, respectively.
  4. USA continued to increase its cases, albeit at a much slower rate of increase.
  5. The recent two-day moving data worsened substantially for Iran, Spain, Germany, USA, France, Cyprus, and Hawaii.
  6. The average of the last three days is worse than for March 19 (when we started the study).
  7. The Olympics “may” be postponed; the final decision is not out. Not sure if the media information is a dirty, inaccurate leak, or an effort by powerful lobbies to postpone the Olympics when Japan does not want to postpone them.

What to do?

Clean every part of your car that you touch with Clorox wipes: the indicator lever; the wipers’ lever, the lights’ switch, the radio tuner and volume buttons; the a/c knobs and dials; the hand brake, the trunk lever button; the gas tank lever button; your mirror adjustment knobs; your window handles/buttons; your door handles inside and outside.

Staying home is best, but if you are going out, keep minimum distance of 10 ft between people (> 6 ft.); avoid elevators whenever possible.

Meditate!

PowerPoint

3/22/2020

Here is our update today for the growth/decline of COVID-19 in the most affected countries and Cyprus and Hawaii.

All countries, except USA, are on a decline from their former peaks. USA growth from the day before increased by a ratio of 1.9 relative to yesterday! This is very high! But note that USA is also about one week to ten days behind Europe in COVID cases. However, in the overall estimate, the most afflicted countries exhibit a downward trend from their peaks.

China’s cases are a mere 0.3% of their peak, while S Korea is at13% to their peak. In the meantime, Singapore and Taiwan have beaten the virus altogether.

The growth in Italy and Spain declined yesterday, while Germany has declined from its peak and held steady today for two days in a row. Angela Merkel took a COVID-19 vaccine, so she probably increased her chances of catching the virus, but we hope that she instead develops quick immunity to the virus.

Iran has been on a steady 40 degree decline from its peak on March 14. France has also shown a general downward trend since four days. UK, which had a high growth yesterday, is down today by 35.7%, a significant drop. While one day’s decline means little, it is always a welcome sign.

The moving averages of two and three days show a different analysis. The two day analysis gives a more reliable, steady long-term trend than a day-to-day analysis. Excluding China and South Korea, for whom we have little concern remaining, only Iran and Germany showed a steady decline. All other countries registered a growth rate higher than 1.0 of their recent two day average compared to the third day before.

The average of the recent three days to the number of cases on March 19 (the day we started our reports), revealed that only France and South Korea were doing better in recent days. All other countries registered an increase in the average growth. Inasmuch as we are looking for a reduced growth from March 19, this is yet to exhibit itself across the board.

Hawaii (1.4 million people) and Cyprus (1.1 million people) are relatively small populations. They have both held steady at 8-11 cases daily for the past four, and five days, respectively. Even as of today, there is no evidence in Hawaii of widespread community spread. Hawaii started a total lockdown as of 4:30 pm today HST.

In the meantime, India, home to 1.3 billion people – no small joke – had a day curfew the entire Sunday throughout the whole country.

In general, an overall growth of 1.0 means that the growth is holding steady; a growth less than 1.0 means that the virus is being beaten; a growth of more than 1.0 is always cause for alarm.

Today’s statistical analysis yields a mixed bag of results. But, everyday is a new day. We'll see what tomorrow brings!

During the Spanish Influenza of 1918, the US Surgeon General had similar recommendations for what the CDC is giving this time, but were more poignant, urging everyone to “Remember the three Cs — a clean mouth, clean skin and clean clothes.”
“Clean clothes” don’t only mean wearing clean clothes, but putting your worn clothes into the washer at the end of the day. And “clean skin” means having your daily bath, at the very least, and bathing twice a day if you contacted outsiders that day. That is, if you wish to not take risks.

The US Surgeon General, even back in 1918, asked people to avoid crowds, and cover your mouth when you sneeze. He ended with an admonition: “Your fate is in your hands: wash your hands.”



These precautions will not necessarily save you from catching the virus, but it sure is helluva lot better to take these precautions than not.

Best wishes – and take care.

God bless.

PowerPoint

3/21/2020

Here is our update today for the growth/decline of COVID-19 in the most affected countries and Cyprus and Hawaii.

After new cases going to zero in China between March 08 and March 18, China saw a mild resurgence by registering 41 and 39 cases today and yesterday, respectively. South Korea is in a somewhat similar boat as China, in that the number of daily cases are down to a fraction of their respective peaks. Both China and South Korea are seeing a flattening of active cases.

Iran's new cases are on a steady, overall decline since March 14.

Germany and USA, which were both on a perfect exponential curve, saw their growth decline from yesterday by 54.4% and 13.8%, respectively. These are positive indicators.

Italy's growth is declining on a daily basis since 3/19. This means that Italy should be steadily approaching the inflection point, God willing.

Spain and France are still volatile in their outlook. But, UK was positively explosive yesterday. God save the Queen!

Hawaii (1.4 million people) and Cyprus (1.1 million people) are relatively small populations. Cyprus still has volatility. Hawaii's growth exploded on 3/19 from 3 cases to 10, but have been steady since then at 10-11 cases daily.

Everyday is a new day. We'll see what tomorrow brings!

Our charts will be expanded in the next report to show additional statistical measures.

Best wishes -- take care -- wash your hands -- and wipe down all your door knobs and cabinet knobs. Using clorox or wet wipes, wipe down your phones, TV remote, keyboard, mouse, car steering and car gear drive. Wear gloves if you use the elevator or go out; wash your hands, anyway, after you return. Drink an extra glass of water morning and evening. Please ignore this lecture if you already know these, but don't ignore the actions recommended.

God bless.